General Discussion

General DiscussionQuestion to Devs: Win Rate?

Question to Devs: Win Rate? in General Discussion
Wefrucar

    I can't see if this has been discussed, but I'd be surprised if no one has noticed that the Win Rate displayed all over is not actually a very useful statistic.

    For example, choose a hero - any hero - and look at the Best vs. and Worst vs.
    Let me guess: the best vs include Morphling, AM, and Brood?
    Worst vs include Centaur, Drow, Jakiro, Lich?

    Of course they do, these are the worst- and best-performing heroes by overall win rate.
    But how is this useful information? It doesn't tell us that this one particular hero does poorly or strongly against centaur, just that centaur tends to win most of his matches regardless of the heroes he's against.

    For another example, suppose you were curious to find out which hero makes the best use of a Blink Dagger?
    So you look up the item page, and notice that of the 7 heroes who have bought blink dagger the most number of times, the highest win rates are from Centaur, Tide, ES, in that order.
    So then Centaur is the best hero to put a blink dagger on? No, he's just a hero who wins often and may or may not have a blink dagger on him when he does so.

    What I suggest:
    Instead of (or in addition to) the Win Rate %, why don't you have a +- Win Rate.
    By which I mean, the difference between this particular win rate and the hero's average win rate.

    So the top 7 blink-users' win rates would go as follows:
    Sand King 59.72% (+9.64%)
    Centaur 71.90% (+9.85%)
    Tide 66.16% (+13.04%)
    Axe 57.80% (+10.95%)
    ES 59.80% (+11.93%)

    (Numbers in parentheses gotten by subtracting the first % from the hero's overall win rate.)
    Now, doesn't this seem more informative? We can now see that Tide and ES are heroes that benefit more strongly from a blink dagger (which isn't necessarily groundbreaking information, but at least it makes sense).

    This would be done for all percentages, and there would be a way to sort each page by this +- rate.
    Then instead of seeing that Riki's worst enemies are apparently Centaur, Drow, Jakiro, Necro and Lich - we would see which 5 heroes win against Riki most often RELATIVE TO how often they tend to win in general.

    Does anyone else agree this would be useful and interesting to have as an option?

    TLDR; Win Rate % not as useful as it could be. Display +- Win Rate (difference from the hero's overall win rate) as a more practical statistical measure.

    Markelian

      +
      Would be a very nice thing to implement.

      frankyCrankie

        I was thinking the same except i had no solution to solve the problem.

        I 110% agree with you, very smart solution! =) hopefully they notice

        Luxalpa, Primal Calamity

          I thought about this for a longer time already myself.
          I also want this to be changed. The current "best vs"-stat is useless.

          Wefrucar

            I now see this has been brought up before (with the same suggestion), and a mod responded that using this +- number is bad statistics, which I suppose is a fair argument. But accurate or not, we'd still like our stats to be useful.

            So, alternative suggestion:
            Relative Win Ratio
            (This particular win rate)/(Hero's overall win rate)

            To re-use the same data as OP, this would now look like:
            Sand King 59.72% (+1.19)
            Centaur 71.90% (+1.16)
            Tide 66.16% (+1.25)
            Axe 57.80% (+1.23)
            ES 59.80% (+1.25)

            This solves both problems at once. "Accurate" statistics that are also more informative!